Fox Projection Ignites Michigan Firestorm

voter wearing a mask using a yellow ballot box
Photo: Ringo Chiu / Shutterstock

Michigan Democrat Jocelyn Benson has beaten Republican John James for governor, keeping the battleground state’s top office in Democrat hands despite a campaign that tightened in its final weeks.

Story Snapshot

  • Fox News projected Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson as the winner over Republican John James.
  • Reported totals had Benson ahead roughly 55% to 43% on election night.
  • Polls all fall showed Benson leading, though her margin shrank before Election Day.
  • Michigan’s official count will not be final until county and state boards certify it later this month.

Fox News Projects Benson Winner

The Fox News Decision Desk called Michigan’s governor race for Democrat Jocelyn Benson over Republican John James. Detroit News reported that, with results still coming in early Wednesday, Benson led James by roughly 55% to 43%. A separate Detroit News results page later listed Benson and running mate Winnie Brinks with 1,113,847 votes, or 54.8%, compared with James and running mate Jay DeBoyer at 881,325 votes, or 43.4%.

The win keeps Michigan’s governorship under Democrat control at a time when Republicans had hoped to flip the seat. James, a combat veteran and former U.S. Senate candidate, ran one of the most closely watched Republican campaigns in the Midwest this cycle. Despite a strong fundraising push and national attention, he came up short against an opponent who had served as the state’s top election official.

Polling Signaled Benson’s Advantage All Year

Polling all fall pointed toward a Benson win, though the size of her lead moved around. A Detroit News and WDIV survey from early September had Benson up just four points, 47% to 43%, within the poll’s margin of error. By late September, a Fox News poll of 1,028 likely Michigan voters showed a wider nine-point gap, with Benson at 54% and James at 45%.

Benson’s lead appeared to grow again in late October. A Detroit News and WDIV poll of 600 likely voters taken October 19 through 22 put Benson at 51.4% and James at 44.5%, a seven-point spread. But a Mitchell Research and Communications poll for CBS Detroit, conducted October 26 and 27 after both candidates debated, found the race closer again, with Benson at 49% and James at 44%, inside a 3.9-point margin of error.

Certification Still Pending Despite Projection

A network projection is not the same as an official result. Michigan law requires county boards of canvassers to meet no later than the Thursday after Election Day to begin certifying local results. The state’s full certification deadline for this year’s general election falls later this month, on November 23. Until that process finishes, Tuesday’s numbers remain unofficial, even after a network has called the race.

News outlets have made early winner calls for decades using unofficial returns, turnout patterns, and historical voting data rather than waiting for the certified count. That system let Fox News and other networks announce a Benson win hours after polls closed, while Michigan’s bipartisan county and state canvassing boards still had weeks of formal work ahead of them to make the result official.

For Michigan Republicans, the result stings after a campaign that showed real signs of tightening in its closing days. James ran a serious, well-funded race and narrowed Benson’s lead from nine points to roughly five in the final weeks of polling. But in a state Republicans need to compete in statewide, falling short again against a sitting Secretary of State leaves the party searching for answers before the next cycle.

Sources:

facebook.com, edition.cnn.com, wlns.com, lansingstatejournal.com, cbsnews.com, nbcnews.com, michigan.gov, campaignlegal.org